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PREDICTION MARKET ANALYTICS

Learn how the market moves, and why.

PredictionCharts analyzes Kalshi and Polymarket price history after every game, pinning each probability swing to the play that caused it — so you can see how the market reacts and place future orders with accuracy.

LIVE EXAMPLE

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implied probability · real-world play

              
              {{ homeHomeAbbr }}
              {{ homeAwayAbbr }}

              MLB PLAY-BY-PLAY
              Open full analysis →
            

Score {{ e.score }}

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PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL · MLB

Baseball gamelines

Today’s games — live as they happen — plus the most recent finished slate. Click any game to open its win-probability chart with the plays that moved the market.

Loading games…

No games for that filter.

● MLB play-by-play ↗

PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL · MLB · {{ cpCrumbUpper }}

Loading picks…

CLAUDE · claude-fable-5

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streak {{ cpClaudeStreak }}

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CHATGPT · gpt-5

{{ cpGptRecord }}

streak {{ cpGptStreak }}

{{ cpGptRate }}

GROK · grok-4.5

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streak {{ cpGrokStreak }}

{{ cpGrokRate }}

{{ cpLeader }}

{{ r.date }}

CLAUDE· {{ r.cVersion }}

{{ r.cStatLine }}

Why it missed: {{ r.cWhyMiss }}

View game chart →

CHATGPT· {{ r.gVersion }}

{{ r.gStatLine }}

Why it missed: {{ r.gWhyMiss }}

View game chart →

GROK· {{ r.xVersion }}

{{ r.xStatLine }}

Why it missed: {{ r.xWhyMiss }}

View game chart →

PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL · MLB

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{{ koAvg }}

across {{ koStarts }} {{ koUnit }} by {{ koPitcherCount }} {{ koWho }}

{{ koDistTitle }}

AI PICK OF THE DAY · CLAUDE vs CHATGPT — each picks the {{ koClaudeWho }} most likely to fill their 1st contract

View all picks →

CLAUDE

{{ koClaudeRecord }}

{{ koClaudeRate }}

CHATGPT

{{ koChatgptRecord }}

{{ koChatgptRate }}

GROK

{{ koGrokRecord }}

{{ koGrokRate }}

AVG CONTRACT FILL BY WEEK (1ST–5TH)

1ST-CONTRACT FILL RATE BY AVG K

How often a starter's lowest strikeout line hits, by their strikeouts per game. {{ koFillNote }}

2ND-CONTRACT FILL RATE BY AVG K

How often a starter's 2nd-lowest strikeout line hits, by their strikeouts per game. {{ koFillNote2 }}

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Last updated {{ koUpdated }}.

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‹

›

Today

              #
              {{ koNameHdr }}{{ koArrowName }}
              AWARDS
              TEAM{{ koArrowTeam }}
              {{ koGsHdr }}{{ koArrowGs }}
              {{ koAvgHdr }}{{ koArrowAvg }}
              {{ koRateHdr }}{{ koArrowEra }}
              {{ koTotHdr }}{{ koArrowSeasonK }}
              CUSH{{ koCushArrow }}
              OPP K{{ koOppKArrow }}
              FLOOR{{ koFloorArrow }}
              STREAK{{ koStreakArrow }}
              {{ mh.label }}{{ mh.arrow }}
            

DEBUT

↗

Showing {{ koRangeFrom }}–{{ koRangeTo }} of {{ koTotal }}

{{ pg.label }}

{{ tkLeagueLabel }}

{{ tkLeagueAvg }}

across {{ tkTeamCount }} teams · {{ tkTotalK }} {{ tkTotalLabel }}

Loading teams…

No team data available.

Season totals · last updated {{ tkUpdated }}.

              #
              TEAM{{ tkArrowTeam }}
              {{ tkAvgHdr }}{{ tkArrowAvg }}
              GAMES{{ tkArrowGames }}
              {{ tkTotHdr }}{{ tkArrowSeasonK }}
            

MENTIONS

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MARKETS OFFERED

{{ mnTotalMarkets }}

OVERALL HIT RATE

{{ mnHitRate }}

Last updated {{ mnUpdated }}.

Loading mentions…

No mentions found.

              #
              MENTION{{ mnArrowWord }}
              WON{{ mnArrowWins }}
              MARKETS{{ mnArrowShown }}
              WIN%{{ mnArrowPct }}
              LIQUIDITY{{ mnArrowLiq }}
              AVG{{ mnArrowPrice }}
            

AVERAGE MARKET MOVE AFTER A {{ catSingularUpper }}

{{ studyMove }} batting team win probability

{{ studyBefore }} → {{ studyAfter }}
avg of {{ studyN }} {{ catLabelLower }} with market data

Loading {{ catLabelLower }}…

No {{ catLabelLower }} found.

{{ p.awayAbbr }} @ {{ p.homeAbbr }}
{{ p.inning }} · {{ p.date }}

Showing {{ catRangeFrom }}–{{ catRangeTo }} of {{ catTotal }}

{{ pg.label }}

KALSHI MENTION MARKET · MLB

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Mention not found.

Rank #{{ mdRank }} of all Kalshi MLB mentions

WON

{{ mdWins }}

MARKETS

{{ mdShown }}

WIN%

{{ mdWinPct }}

LIQUIDITY

{{ mdLiq }}{{ mdLiqChange }}

AVG ENTRY

{{ mdAvg }}

FILLED IN

{{ mdFilledCount }}/{{ mdGameCount }}

GAMES OFFERED · {{ mdGameCount }} — click a game to open its chart

STARTING PITCHER · STRIKEOUTS · MLB

Loading pitcher…

Pitcher not found.

Rank #{{ pdRank }} of MLB starting pitchers by strikeouts per start

GS

{{ pdStarts }}

AVG K / START

{{ pdAvg }}

ERA

{{ pdEra }}

TOT K · SEASON

{{ pdSeasonK }}

{{ pdCurLabel }}

{{ pdCurLen }}starts

{{ pdCurSpan }}

{{ pdStreakLabel }}

{{ pdStreakLen }}starts

{{ pdStreakSpan }}

{{ pdSubLabel }}

{{ pdSubLen }}starts

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AWARDS & HONORS · {{ pdAwardTotal }} total, per MLB records

🏆 {{ a.label }} {{ a.seasons }}

OTHER MLB HONORS

MINOR LEAGUES & PROSPECT

● LIVE {{ pdLiveScore }} {{ pdLiveState }} · {{ pdLiveOuts }} View game →

STRIKEOUTS NOW

{{ pdLiveK }}

{{ pdLiveLine }}

STARTS · {{ pdGameCount }} — green line = struck out that many · ¢ above = yes-ask at first pitch · gray below = volume · click a game for its chart

{{ g.matchup }} {{ g.k }} K

BATTER · HITS · MLB

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Batter not found.

{{ bdName }} {{ bdTeam }} · {{ bdPos }}

Rank #{{ bdRank }} of MLB batters by hits per game

G

{{ bdStarts }}

AVG H / GAME

{{ bdAvg }}

AVG

{{ bdEra }}

TOT H · SEASON

{{ bdSeasonK }}

CONTRACT FILL RATE · how often each hits line settled yes, over all {{ bdStarts }} games

              MARKETFILLED / GCT/GRATE
            

{{ bdCurLabel }}

{{ bdCurLen }}games

{{ bdCurSpan }}

LONGEST 1+ HIT STREAK

{{ bdStreakLen }}games

{{ bdStreakSpan }}

LONGEST HITLESS SLUMP

{{ bdSlumpLen }}games

{{ bdSlumpSpan }}

AWARDS & HONORS · {{ bdAwardTotal }} total, per MLB records

🏆 {{ a.label }} {{ a.seasons }}

OTHER MLB HONORS

MINOR LEAGUES & PROSPECT

● LIVE {{ bdLiveScore }} {{ bdLiveState }} · {{ bdLiveOuts }} View game →

HITS NOW

{{ bdLiveH }}

{{ bdLiveLine }}

GAMES · {{ bdGameCount }} — each hit shown by inning, RBI and type; click the matchup for its chart

{{ g.matchup }} {{ g.k }} H

▲ {{ h.text }}

Loading game…

Could not load this game.

{{ evAway }} @ {{ evHome }}

LIVE

{{ evSub }}

{{ evAwayScore }}

–

{{ evHomeScore }}

              
              {{ i.n }}
              
              R
              H
              E
            

              {{ lsAwayAbbr }}
              {{ c.v }}
              
              {{ lsAwayR }}
              {{ lsAwayH }}
              {{ lsAwayE }}
            

              {{ lsHomeAbbr }}
              {{ c.v }}
              
              {{ lsHomeR }}
              {{ lsHomeH }}
              {{ lsHomeE }}
            

↕

HITS OVERLAY {{ evBatterName }} — {{ evBatterHitsLabel }} · the blue lines mark where each hit happened

                  
                  {{ evHomeAbbr }}
                  {{ evAwayAbbr }}

                        {{ cardBefore }}%
                        →
                        {{ cardAfter }}%
                        {{ cardMove }}
                      

{{ mentTipWord }}

said {{ mentTipTime }}

MARKET PRICE HISTORY Coming soon — awaiting Kalshi / Polymarket price data for this game. The play-by-play below is live from the database.

PLAY-BY-PLAY TIMELINE

                      {{ e.swing }}
                      {{ e.moveText }}
                    

GAME NAVIGATION

MARKET STATS

OPEN

{{ evAwayAbbr }} {{ evOpenAway }}

{{ evHomeAbbr }} {{ evOpenHome }}

{{ s.label }}

{{ s.value }}

STARTING PITCHERS

{{ sp.abbr }} · {{ sp.name }}

strikeouts

{{ sp.k }} K

HOME RUNS

{{ hr.team }} · {{ hr.batter }}

{{ hr.inning }} · {{ hr.runs }} scored

No home runs in this game.

MENTIONS FILLED

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Users

Learn how the market moves, and why.

Baseball gamelines

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{{ mdWord }}

{{ pdName }} {{ pdTeam }}

{{ bdName }} {{ bdTeam }} · {{ bdPos }}